Possible scenario
Markets Look Through
25% Chance
A sizable minority scenario is that investors decide the headline adds little beyond the prior September dot plot. Market pricing had already shifted after the CPI data and FOMC decision, limiting incremental moves across equities, rates, and credit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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