Possible scenario
Sánchez Rebuilds Majority
28% Chance
PSOE loses some ground but Sánchez again proves able to assemble a parliamentary majority from Sumar, Junts, ERC and other regional parties. This scenario keeps the left in power, but the direction of housing policy depends on whether Sánchez moderates the defeated plan or doubles down under pressure from tenants' groups.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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