Possible scenario
Hung Parliament Returns
24% Chance
Neither the left nor the right reaches a workable majority after the November 29 vote. This outcome is plausible because Junts, ERC, PNV, Vox and smaller parties can block investiture math, while voter anger over housing fragments the national vote.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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