Possible scenario
Regulatory Friction Delays Launch
20% Chance
Despite the constructive CFTC framework, regulators and clearing entities slow the rollout over custody, investor protection, settlement finality, and cross-market surveillance. The licensing deal remains intact, but the path to tradable tokenized options becomes longer and more expensive.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Tickers
- CBOE-2.1%
- -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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