Possible scenario
Food Inflation Extends
42% Chance
The WMO forecast reinforces the view that droughts and floods will keep disrupting crop cycles through early 2027. Markets price a higher probability of sustained food-price inflation, especially in rice, sugar, palm oil, coffee, cocoa, corn and soy-linked supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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