Possible scenario
Seven-Day Pause Holds
35% Chance
Iran's security plan becomes a temporary deconfliction mechanism rather than a final settlement. Oman, Qatar, the United States, and Gulf producers use the seven-day window to restore tanker confidence while avoiding a direct US-Iran clash.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.9%
- Consumer Services +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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