Possible scenario
Hormuz Escalation Resumes
20% Chance
Iran's seven-day plan fails to restrain the IRGC or is used as leverage while attacks continue. With recent strikes on multiple tankers still fresh, markets treat renewed violence as a material escalation in the world's most important oil chokepoint.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.