Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Disruption
30% Chance
Washington refuses to legitimize Iran's terms, but both sides avoid a decisive military escalation. Tanker flows remain below full capacity as shipowners wait for naval escorts, insurance quotes rise, and crude retains a geopolitical premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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