Possible scenario
Oil Enforcement Tightens
25% Chance
Washington could widen Operation Economic Outcast from financial middlemen to more shipping, insurance, and crude-trading networks connected to NIOC, NITC, and IRGC-linked oil sales. This would not amount to a blockade, but it could raise transaction costs and temporarily lift crude and tanker-rate risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Tickers
- FRO+1.1%
- INSW+0.9%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.