Possible scenario
Continued Retail Relief
45% Chance
The most likely path is a further but orderly decline in pump prices as ExxonMobil's Joliet refinery normalization continues to flow through wholesale and retail channels. OPEC+ steady quotas keep crude from adding a fresh upward impulse, while post-Labor Day demand seasonally softens.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Tickers
- VLO-1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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