Possible scenario
Pay Proves Insufficient
25% Chance
The increase fails to offset family strain, extended rotations, and perceptions of open-ended Mideast risk. The Department of War is forced to seek broader retention bonuses, contractor support, or changes to deployment schedules.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- VVX+0.9%
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.