Possible scenario
Persistent Gulf Disruption
30% Chance
Attacks and insurance restrictions keep a meaningful share of Gulf exports delayed even without a formal closure of Hormuz. This keeps physical crude scarce, intensifies stagflation concerns, and pressures import-dependent sectors over the next trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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