Possible scenario
Convoy Containment Holds
40% Chance
The most likely path is a managed security response that keeps the Strait of Hormuz technically open despite elevated risk. U.S., U.K., and regional naval escorts reduce the frequency and effectiveness of attacks, allowing physical buyers to avoid panic bidding even if insurance costs remain high.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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