Possible scenario
Political Showdown Escalates
22% Chance
Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen intensify attacks on the fiscal plan and the Banque de France's role in the bond rout. The issue shifts from budget arithmetic to a broader institutional fight over central-bank independence and presidential authority.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.2%
- Industrials -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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