Possible scenario
Fiscal Deal Calms Rout
35% Chance
President Emmanuel Macron and centrist allies secure enough parliamentary support to keep the €43 billion consolidation plan alive. Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau's defense of institutional independence helps frame the selloff as a fiscal credibility issue rather than a central-bank legitimacy crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.0%
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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