Possible scenario
Escalation Beyond State
25% Chance
The inquiry expands after investigators identify inconsistencies in communications, payment records, or Marafatsos's role in the LNG push. Congressional committees and possibly DOJ seek records, creating a higher-risk political and legal track.
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.