Possible scenario
Damaging Baja Landfall
30% Chance
Polo weakens from its Category 5 peak but still reaches Baja California Sur as a damaging hurricane or strong tropical storm. The main financial exposure is local tourism, airport operations, insurers, utilities, and near-term rebuilding demand.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Utilities -0.1%
Tickers
- H-1.0%
- MAR-1.0%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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