Possible scenario
Modified Backstop Approved
38% Chance
FERC's suspension proves procedural rather than fatal, and PJM files a revised tariff with tighter eligibility, clearer cost allocation, and stronger market-monitor review. This is the most likely outcome because FERC often uses suspension orders to force revisions while preserving reliability tools in stressed regions.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.8%
- Technology -0.3%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- VST+3.2%
- TLN+3.0%
- CEG+2.5%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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