Possible scenario
Backfill Limits Damage
38% Chance
Republican Senate groups absorb Timothy Mellon's reduced giving by leaning harder on Senate Leadership Fund, the NRSC, and other major donors. The party's late-cycle advertising edge narrows but does not collapse, especially in states where outside groups already reserved time.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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