Possible scenario
Limited Militia Retaliation
25% Chance
Iran-backed militias, Hezbollah, or Syrian air-defense units respond with limited rocket, drone, or missile fire. The exchange broadens the immediate security risk but remains geographically concentrated in Syria, South Lebanon, and northern Israel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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