Possible scenario
Managed Nuclear Stalemate
28% Chance
Iran keeps offering dialogue rhetorically while avoiding the concessions demanded by Washington. The United States maintains pressure, the IAEA continues scrutiny, and both sides avoid moves that would force immediate military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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