Possible scenario
Diplomatic Track Reopens
42% Chance
Pezeshkian's denial of a weapons goal gives Washington and Tehran political cover to reopen indirect talks, most likely through Oman or Qatar. The near-term bargain would focus on verifiable nuclear restraint, IAEA access, and a path to suspend some sanctions rather than a comprehensive deal.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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