Possible scenario
Coercive Escalation Returns
20% Chance
The dialogue offer fails to overcome the U.S. demand for nuclear cuts and Iran's insistence on sovereign enrichment rights. Military signaling, proxy activity, or new disclosures about secret sites revive escalation risk despite Pezeshkian's public denial.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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