Possible scenario
Talks Stay Frozen
45% Chance
Putin's statement is most likely used to justify a continued pause in formal negotiations while Moscow and Kyiv trade blame over drones and missile strikes. Neither side appears ready to accept the political costs of major concessions after the recent escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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