Possible scenario
Military Escalation Widens
20% Chance
Putin's remarks could precede a harder Russian military response, especially if Moscow frames Ukrainian strikes as an obstacle to diplomacy. Kyiv would likely continue long-range drone operations, keeping escalation risk elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.