Possible scenario
Limited Diplomacy Resumes
25% Chance
Despite public recriminations, mediators may still extract a limited de-escalation if both sides want to preserve leverage with Washington. The most plausible diplomatic path is narrow humanitarian or technical talks rather than a full political settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Finance +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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