Possible scenario
Inflation Relief Arrives
18% Chance
A softer inflation release before the next FOMC decision would reduce the urgency behind Goolsbee's warning. This is less likely given the recent stubborn readings, but it remains plausible if shelter or services inflation finally moderates.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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