Possible scenario
Hike Becomes Base
42% Chance
The most likely path is that investors treat Austan Goolsbee's warning as confirmation that the FOMC is leaning toward another 25 bp increase if inflation does not quickly improve. The hot inflation reading and prior Goolsbee comments make a hike-or-pause debate more asymmetric toward tightening.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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