Possible scenario
Hawkish Pause Survives
30% Chance
The Fed may still prefer to wait for more data, especially if officials view policy as already restrictive. In this scenario, Goolsbee's language keeps tightening optionality alive but does not lock in a November move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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