Possible scenario
Contained Protest Standoff
32% Chance
The blockades persist but remain mostly concentrated in schools, universities, and local demonstrations rather than becoming a nationwide economic shutdown. This is plausible because unions have leverage in education but the government has strong incentives to avoid reopening the entire €43B fiscal package.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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