Possible scenario
Broader Strike Escalation
20% Chance
Education protests spread into a wider public-sector strike, with transport, municipal services, and potentially energy workers joining coordinated action against the €43B savings plan. This would turn a school disruption into a broader macro and political risk event, though still far below a systemic crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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