Possible scenario
Bidding War Escalates
28% Chance
A colder winter, weak wind generation or stronger Asian demand forces European buyers to bid aggressively for flexible US LNG cargoes. Spot gas prices rise, benefiting LNG exporters while hurting European utilities and energy-intensive industrial users.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.3%
- Utilities -2.0%
- Industrials -1.0%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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