Targeted Export Compromise

its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.3%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The Trump administration allows some China AI-chip exports to continue but tightens licensing, reporting, and customer verification. Nvidia’s shift toward allies and customers helps preserve a partial channel, while the CEO scandal makes a clean status quo politically untenable.

What it moves

Technology−0.5%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

Targeted Export Compromise

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