Possible scenario
Spain Codifies Embargo
20% Chance
The Sánchez government converts the arms halt into a statutory policy backed by parliament and procurement guidance. This would make Spain a leading European enforcer of restrictions on Israeli defense trade, though the direct macroeconomic footprint remains small.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT-2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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