Possible scenario
Government Opens Review
15% Chance
The Ugandan government could decide that the competing claim requires an administrative review, especially if petitions allege procedural flaws in the current royal order. Such a review would likely be cautious because Kampala traditionally avoids appearing to pick cultural leaders unless recognition rules require it.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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