Possible scenario
Talks Collapse Escalation
22% Chance
Russia follows the Kyiv strikes with additional attacks, undermining the political case for sanctions relief. Washington pauses the relief review and shifts back toward air-defense aid, enforcement and possible secondary-sanctions threats.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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