Possible scenario
Relief Is Blocked
30% Chance
Congress, Kyiv and key European allies push back hard against any sanctions easing while Russian missiles continue hitting civilian infrastructure. The administration either shelves the proposal or narrows it so much that it has little practical impact.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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