Possible scenario
Crackdown Becomes Baseline
35% Chance
The administration keeps the visa-revocation program in place and frames the 250,000-plus cancellations as a national-security screening result rather than a temporary action. Courts allow much of the policy to continue while requiring limited notice and review procedures.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Business Services -0.7%
- Technology -0.5%
Tickers
- UAL-1.2%
- DAL-1.1%
- EXPE-0.6%
- -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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