Transition Roadmap Advances

Washington and Caracas use the Oct. 14 talks to outline a gradual transition framework tied to electoral guarantees, prisoner releases, and phased sanctions relief. This is the most likely outcome because both sides have incentives to avoid a sudden rupture while testing whether Maduro can accept a managed exit or power-sharing path.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.