Possible scenario
Talks Drift Sideways
18% Chance
Negotiators keep the channel open but fail to settle sequencing disputes over sanctions relief, opposition rights, and Maduro's personal guarantees. This outcome preserves optionality for both sides while delaying major policy changes.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- CVX-0.2%
- SLB-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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