Possible scenario
Oil Deal Without Transition
30% Chance
The talks deliver a narrow energy and humanitarian bargain rather than a true political transition. Maduro offers limited concessions to secure hard currency and US officials accept partial oil access to stabilize migration and energy diplomacy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- CVX+1.8%
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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