Possible scenario
Bipartisan Liability Momentum
36% Chance
Trahan's CLAIM Act becomes part of a broader bipartisan push after Trump rejects a blanket AI liability shield and lawsuits against OpenAI keep public attention on harms. The most likely path is hearings, negotiations and messaging pressure rather than immediate enactment.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Business Services +0.5%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.9%
- META-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.