Possible scenario
Ukraine Expands Targeting
28% Chance
Kyiv interprets repeated successful penetrations of Russian airspace as proof that long-range drone production is changing the war’s economics. It widens attacks from symbolic strikes on Moscow toward logistics, military-industrial sites and energy infrastructure in the Volga and Central Federal districts.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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