Possible scenario
Containment Through Defenses
40% Chance
Russia treats the 35-day drone surge as a chronic homeland-security problem rather than a trigger for a major strategic shift. Moscow expands electronic warfare, rooftop air-defense sites, airport closures and civil-defense messaging, while Ukraine keeps pressure on the capital at a high but manageable tempo.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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