Possible scenario
Waiver Scales Quickly
25% Chance
The White House, Treasury, and IRS rapidly publish safe-harbor rules allowing retailers to sell dyed diesel for highway use during the emergency if taxes are collected and records are retained. That brings non-road distillate inventories into trucking supply channels and lowers near-term diesel scarcity.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
- Energy -1.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.4%
Tickers
- +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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