Possible scenario
Protests Spread Nationwide
20% Chance
The Delhi internet cutoff backfires and turns a capital-city protest into a wider student-led civil-liberties movement. Opposition parties, university groups, and digital-rights organizations coordinate demonstrations in major metros, raising the risk of broader shutdowns and sustained disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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