Possible scenario
Government Offers Concessions
30% Chance
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government moves to defuse the crisis by promising a review of voter deletions and limiting police action in Central Delhi. The protest movement claims a partial win, internet service is restored, and near-term political risk eases without an immediate national election reset.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Telecommunications +0.4%
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.