Possible scenario
Crackdown Contains Protests
35% Chance
The Union Home Ministry and Delhi Police keep the internet suspension narrow and use arrests, barricades, and Section 144 orders to stop the movement from reaching Parliament or India Gate. The immediate political cost is high, but the central government avoids a nationwide breakdown and restores some connectivity after protest leaders are detained.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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