Possible scenario
Threat Becomes Standoff
30% Chance
The White House keeps the strike option active but uses the threat to coerce Iran and deter further Houthi or IRGC attacks. This outcome fits Trump's pattern of public brinkmanship while allowing military deployments and diplomacy to work in parallel.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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