Possible scenario
Limited U.S. Strikes
35% Chance
The most likely kinetic outcome is a contained U.S. air and missile campaign against IRGC, air-defense, missile, and nuclear-support infrastructure. Washington tries to restore deterrence after attacks around Hormuz and Riyadh while avoiding an open-ended regime-change war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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